This is not a very good start in 2008 as a blogger. I haven't been able to update as frequently as expected. I have been very busy at work, trying to learn a completely new language and often feel like an idiot when dealing with the professionals. Every day after work, my brain freezes up while feeling reluctant to think anything else except work or need to catch up with reading b/c of too many redundant meetings and ad hoc requests during the day. I am not complaining.. I enjoy what I am doing now because I can achieve greater gratification and make immediate decisions.
For quite some time, I kept thinking about the idea of managing expectation. Think of yourself, your professional life, as a common stock of your own. At the start of the career, you are similar to a hidden gem in the desert, you are deeply undervalued, you are a real bargain based on the market value. When you start gaining publicity, building up self-confidence, every step you take is the building block of credibility. People begin to scrutinize your work and judgment and imposing a value on you - how much do you worth and every year they assess your past year performance and set a benchmark for next year. At the same time, you try to manage their expectation and try to beat the benchmark for your own compensation.
If you are able to consistently surprise on the upside, you are a good stock for them to own and worth the high valuation. If luck is not on your side and you miss their forecast, they will cut loss and turn to something that provide greater value proposition.
Seems like to be an inevitable vicious cycle, and we are more like a commodity than ever. Should we strive for our dream for greater self gratification? That's the lifelong struggle for us all.
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how about this - your professional life resembles a growth stock instead of a value stock. in the beginning, you incur typical start-up loss, investors know you won't deliver +ve earnings (you probably even have -ve shareholder's equity), but what they want to see is the potential and stamina, and most importantly, when can you reach the hockey stick inflection pt. once you breakeven and get to the stick part, everyone loves you and gives you a 60x p/e. when you mature, they give you the typical 12x p/e and expect you to deliver a stable growth in e.
the difference? it means that like an internet stock - give reasonable but conservative guidance that you can beat; care less about absolute return but more on growth; strategy is just as important as execution.
icbc only operates in china, but its market cap is even larger than citigroup that has businesses worldwide. icbc probably will never match citigroup's e, but in this market, growth w/ visibility is a rarity, so investors are willing to pay for it.
and yeah - the analysts/bankers who are fleeing from US to asian markets - they are probably smarter than you are and can deliver on day 1. but they have lame luck, and they don't offer the visibility, so take advantage of your position and be confident!
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